Federal funds rate pushed to 16-year high. On May 3, the Federal Open Market Committee lifted the overnight lending rate to a lower bound of 5.0 percent, a 25-basis-point shift. The FOMC has raised the federal funds rate a combined 75 basis points so far in 2023, just one-sixth of last year’s total shift. Going forward, the path is more open. Chairman Powell stated that the FOMC will take a meeting-by-meeting approach to any further monetary… Read More

Local apartment demand resisting broader headwinds. The New York City multifamily sector entered 2023 on strong footing. Nearly as many apartments were absorbed on a net basis last year as were constructed, which stands in sharp contrast to the national trend of increasing vacancy. Overall, roughly 70,000 more apartments are occupied today in the metro than before the pandemic began, as pent-up demand to form households offset an overall retreat in the local population. Moving… Read More

The Fed announced a 0.25% increase in the Federal Funds rate at the FOMC meeting on May 3rd, pushing the Target Rate to 5.00% – 5.25%. The move was widely expected by the market as inflation has been moving in the right direction, hitting 5.0% in March compared to 6.0% in April and down f rom 9.0% at its peak in June 2022. In its announcement, the Fed softened its…

Home sales fall again as interest rates tick back up. After climbing to a five-month high during February, the pace of home sales regressed in March as the latest Federal Reserve rate hike helped push borrowing costs upward. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage had settled to 6.3 percent across the opening two months of 2023, prompting more prospective homebuyers to pursue listings. However, the mean borrowing rate ticked back above…

Economy grows in the first quarter, but at slowing pace. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent in the first quarter of this year. Factors contributing to this growth include gains in consumer spending, exports, and government spending. Last quarter’s improvement to GDP was nevertheless a deceleration from the 2.6 percent annual rate reported for the final three months of 2022. An uptick in imports, along with a slowdown in…

Consumers prioritize food and personal care items. For a second consecutive month, total retail sales dropped; however, a pair of necessity-based categories continued to record gains. In March, health and personal care shops registered a third consecutive month of growth, with sales rising 0.3 percent. Meanwhile, grocery store purchasing increased slightly amid a decline in food at home inflation. The divergence between these two segments’ performance and overall retail spending indicates…

Construction starts hindered. A tight labor market, strong wage growth, and elevated costs for food, services and housing have all contributed to keeping overall inflation elevated. The Fed has responded to this by hiking interest rates. As of late March, the overnight lending rate was at 4.75 percent, the highest level since December 2007. Also, despite a retreat in…

Risk of Banking Sector Disruption Driven by Commercial Real Estate Defaults Remains Low Following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, concerns have arisen around small banks holding high concentrations of commercial real estate debt. Outside of a few challenged segments, however, commercial assets have generally performed well. Much of the small bank CRE debt is also not set to mature this year. These factors temper risks of a banking disruption stemming from… Read More

Mild mortgage rate relief brought buyers off the sidelines. Existing single-family home sales hit a 5-month high in February, correlating with a slight retreat in borrowing costs. Mortgage rates have been volatile in the opening portion of 2023, climbing after the Federal Reserve voiced a more aggressive stance, then falling again after Silicon Valley Bank’s demise and the related banking sector turmoil. The average 30-year mortgage rate is nevertheless undercutting last year’s 7 percent peak, hanging… Read More

Employers continuing to hire, but at tapering pace. The economy welcomed 236,000 new positions in March, the slowest month for job creation since a net loss in December 2020. Hiring was led by the leisure and hospitality sector, along with additions in health care, the public sector, and professional and business services. These gains offset job losses in retail trade, construction and manufacturing. Overall, while last month’s hiring is well above the long-term average, it falls… Read More