Possible recession predictor lit up this month. In early July, the spread between the two-year and 10-year treasuries inverted, with the yield on the shorter-term instrument inching above that of the long-term note. Typically, bonds with longer maturities pay a higher interest rate to compensate investors for the risk of holding those assets longer. When yields invert, it implies investors perceive more economic risk in the near future than down the line. Six of the… Read More

Job growth continues at consistent, above-average pace. Employers added 372,000 personnel to payrolls in June, bringing the total job count to within 0.4 percent of the February 2020 high. June marked the fourth consecutive month with an unemployment rate of 3.6 percent and job creation in the high-300,000 range. While last month’s hiring trails measures from earlier in the year, it is nevertheless well above other periods of tight unemployment. Encouragingly, robust employment growth is… Read More

Fed executes steepest rate hike in decades. At its June 15 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds rate 75 basis points to a target range of 1.50 percent to 1.75 percent. This was the largest single increase since November 1994 and brings the total year-to-date advancement to 150 basis points. Additional rate hikes are anticipated through the rest of the year, likely lifting the year-end target range into the 3.50… Read More

Tightening monetary policy highlights utility of rate swaps and caps. Commercial real estate investors have long had multiple avenues for hedging against rising interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s commitment to raising interest rates, renewed by higher-than-anticipated CPI inflation in May, has brought these options back to the forefront of many borrowers’ minds. For investors with floating rate debt, there are two prominent options to hedge against rate climbs: an interest rate swap and cap. A… Read More

Retail sector approaches a junction. Improvements in grocery and dining-related spending were brightspots in May, when core retail sales advanced marginally against a backdrop of high inflation. The recent gains recorded across the two retail segments occurred alongside declines in home-based purchasing categories, including furniture, electronics and online spending. This activity points to a broader shift in consumer behavior away from the consumption of home goods and toward necessities and some social experiences. This adjustment… Read More

Job growth overcomes inflation concerns. Total employment increased by 390,000 personnel in May, consistent with April hiring, while the unemployment rate held at a historically low 3.6 percent for a third consecutive month. Continued job creation is an important baluster amid economic turbulence stemming from elevated inflation and rising interest rates. June will likely bring the year’s third rate hike from the Federal Reserve, as well as marking the start of quantitative tightening. Higher interest… Read More

Tech hiring reiterates decentralization. Over the past decade, the tech industry expanded beyond the traditional hubs of the Bay Area, Seattle, Los Angeles and New York City into new frontiers in Atlanta, Austin, Denver and Orlando. Firms sought out new talent and planned expansions in lower-cost areas. Despite this, nearly 50 percent of new tech job openings from 2015 to 2019 were still located in high-profile tech metros. During the health crisis, the decentralization of… Read More

Hiring continues amid low unemployment. Employers added 428,000 new jobs in April, on par with the previous month. While the employment base remains about 1.2 million positions short of the February 2020 headcount, multiple signs point to a recovered labor market. Last month 5.9 million people were unemployed, only 200,000 above the pre-pandemic mark. The underemployment rate also fell to 7.0 percent in April, matching the February 2020 level. This measure takes into account part-time workers… Read More

Fed continues along established stratagem to combat inflation. On May 4 the Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points in the second of seven planned rate hikes for the year. Now at a target range between 0.75 percent and 1.00 percent, the effective overnight lending rate is expected to climb to the 2 percent to 3 percent zone before the start of 2023 if the Fed continues with this strategy. Numerous forces… Read More

First quarter GDP contraction not a concern. Gross domestic product fell by an annualized rate of 1.4 percent in the opening quarter of 2022. The reduction was driven predominantly by a widening trade deficit, as import volumes climbed rapidly while exports declined. With stimulus concluded, less government spending also contributed to lower GDP. Excluding these two categories, metrics were much more positive. Personal consumption and private investment both added to GDP last quarter, and domestic… Read More