All brick-and-mortar categories record monthly increases. Store-based retail sales, which exclude spending online and at restaurants and bars, climbed 1.7 percent in January, marking the largest monthly rise in nearly two years. Reversing a recent down trend, gains were widespread across store types, highlighted by notable improvements in furniture, appliance and clothing-related purchasing. This broad-based increase signals that consumers, while pressured by inflation, still have solid cash reserves and borrowing capacity following the holidays, a boon… Read More

Employment gain hits highest point in nearly a year. Job growth surged in January, as a net 517,000 positions were created on a seasonally-adjusted basis. January’s employment gain not only surpasses last year’s monthly average of 401,000 jobs, but it was also the most active period for hiring since February 2022. While the end to a California education labor dispute contributed to a jump in government onboarding, most of the job additions were in the… Read More

Do economists’ rising 2023 GDP forecasts imply a soft landing? What the strengthening economic outlook means for CRE investors Could the economy still experience a recession in 2023?

Retail real estate generally outperformed investor expectations throughout the pandemic and enjoyed a healthy bounce last year in regards to rents and operations. This positive momentum has drawn increasing investor attention. To help investors capitalize on the nuances of the current climate, Marcus & Millichap presents the 2023 Retail National Investment Forecast. Key Features Include: A detailed outlook for the U.S. retail sector in 2023 Metrics, forecasts and analyses for 50 markets across the country… Read More

How does the January jobs report impact CRE in the short-term vs long-term? What is the relationship between job creation and absorption? Should CRE investors feel optimistic or discouraged by the latest jobs report?

Softening economic data warrants less-assertive rate increase. The Federal Reserve has extended its tightening cycle into 2023 by raising the federal funds rate to a lower bound of 4.50 percent. The 25-basis-point increase is nevertheless the smallest hike since March of last year, reflecting both easing inflation pressure and diminishing economic growth. Headline CPI actually dipped 0.1 percent on a monthly basis in December, for a year-over-year change of 6.5 percent. The 14-month low in consumer… Read More

Slowing rate of inflation a welcome sign. Core retail sales in the last month of 2022 were up by 7.2 percent year-over-year. Despite a notable upward stretch, spending may be softening. December’s retail sales volume was a step back from recent months, a potential signal of the challenges facing consumers in the year ahead. While overall cash savings is some $4.4 trillion above the pre-pandemic mark, not every household was able to set aside funds. These… Read More

Job growth tapers slightly in December. Across the country, a net 223,000 jobs were created in December, pushing the unemployment rate back down to 3.5 percent. While still above the 2000-2019 average, monthly hiring has been trending down since July of this year. Staff additions last month were most prevalent in the leisure and hospitality sector, as well as in health care and construction. Payroll changes in other industries were modest. While joblessness remains low, the… Read More

Job creation robust in October. Hiring continued at a strong clip last month with the creation of 261,000 jobs, although the pace is decelerating. Employment growth averaged 562,000 positions per month in 2021 and 457,000 in the first seven months of this year. Since July, that tempo has moderated to 289,000, which is nevertheless about 60 percent above the 2010-2019 mean. Notable October onboarding occurred in professional and technical services, manufacturing and accommodation. The most staff… Read More

Hiring allows spending to elevate and broaden. Overall retail sales climbed by triple the pace of CPI inflation last month, up 1.3 percent. This indicates that spending improved in real terms. Expectation-exceeding October job creation that pushed the national headcount to 800,000 positions above the pre-pandemic mark partially offset the impacts of higher prices, steeper borrowing costs and other economic concerns. While consumers continued to place an emphasis on necessary items such as food and gas,… Read More