Research Brief: Gross Domestic Product 4Q 2021

Economic recovery downshifts in third quarter. GDP expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the third quarter as myriad head-winds weighed on growth. Supply chain issues are hampering consumption despite a record level of savings. Additionally, government stimulus from early 2021 that fueled personal expenditures in the second quarter had largely dissipated by the third quarter. Combined with a surge in COVID-19 cases that kept some people at home, these challenges made consumption the largest drag on growth in the summer period. Although some of these hurdles will persist, the outlook is improving as positive test rates have decreased and the holiday season will bring out more shoppers.

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