Potential Interest Rate Rise Prompts Investors to Recalibrate Strategies Deficit surge and policy uncertainty amplify upward rate trajectory. Interest rate risk remains tilted to the upside as investors contend with a convergence of structural and policy-driven pressures. Chief among them are rising fiscal deficits and elevated uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. Combined, the factors increase the likelihood of higher long-term interest rates, as investors demand greater yields to compensate for fiscal and policy risk. Analysis of… Read More

How cap rate risk premiums have changed in recent years Cap rate trends and benchmarks for different CRE property types Why cap rates matter… and why they don’t              

Key provisions of the House of Representatives tax bill Will bonus depreciation change CRE investment calculus? How the new tax bill could influence interest rates            

Headline CPI inches up in April amid notable trade policy shifts. Changes to consumer prices in April indicate that tariff-related costs increases have yet to pass through to households. During the month, the consumer price index for all items rose 0.2 percent, bringing the annual inflation rate to 2.3 percent. Core CPI, meanwhile, remained unchanged at 2.8 percent year over year. Underlying price pressures were relatively stable during the…

Stretch of resiliency may be waning. While core retail sales rose 5.4 percent year-over-year in April, spending was unchanged on a monthly basis after adjusting for core CPI inflation — an indication that a pullback in consumer spending is materializing. Even so, several key retail categories registered encouraging gains during the month, including restaurants and bars. These increases, however, were offset by…

Federal budget & policies to play pivotal role in interest rate outlook Market forces may place upward pressure on interest rates Why now may be the time for investor action            

Hiring proceeds despite changing U.S. trade outlook. Exceeding expectations, total employment rose by 177,000 positions last month, keeping gains on par with the monthly average for the past year. The health care and social assistance sectors contributed the most to this growth. Meanwhile, the federal workforce declined by 9,000 roles, bringing total reductions to 26,000 since January. This figure may rise…

Distress levels are rising—but remain below historical peaks Some lenders tightening enforcement of non-compliant loans Investors remain active—especially when rates dip            

Period of uncertainty tests span of vigorous leasing. Renters absorbed a net of nearly 147,000 units during the first quarter of this year, capping off a historic 12-month period for apartment leasing that lowered national vacancy by 90 basis points. Even in the face of elevated construction, vacancy compressed year over year in 48 of 50 major metros, with all three apartment classes noting reductions of 70 to 90 basis points. Since then, however, growing… Read More

Office demand has been positive for four straight quarters How office performance influences all other property types Office performance varies by metro and sub-type