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Research

Our research methodology integrates historical and current economic, demographic and real estate factors which enables our Research Services department to develop comprehensive market forecast scenarios.

WHAT APRIL INFLATION DATA MEANS FOR INVESTORS

Why the Fed’s rate decisions may differ from the consensus perspective How generational differences in “normal” interest rates affect real estate strategies The key trends real estate investors should continue to monitor

POTENTIAL RISKS INVESTORS SHOULD MONITOR

Why the unemployment rate will be the number to watch in coming months What a recession could mean for Commercial Real Estate How the Federal Reserve could respond to a recession and implications for CRE

Research Brief: Gross Domestic Product – April 2024

Key GDP growth contributors post positive results. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent during the first quarter of 2024. While this is a deceleration from the 3.4 percent rate from the final quarter of last year, the economy still grew in several areas. U.S. residents continued to spend robustly, with final sales to private domestic purchasers up 6.1 percent annualized, the best mark in a year. Residential and non-residential… Read More

INVESTOR OPINIONS ON CRE PRICING

Why do institutional and private investor views on market timing differ? Are there CRE opportunities that investors can capitalize on today? Which properties should investors consider selling today?

Research Brief: Retail Sales – April 2024

Most store types report encouraging start to 2024. Consumers set a new benchmark for quarterly retail sales volume in the first three months of 2024 — roughly $1.55 trillion. Spending during the January-March span was up 3 percent when compared to the same period last year, despite slackening consumer confidence. This recent rise in spending occurred alongside consumers spreading their purchases across more types of retail, with seven of 10 major categories notching gains. While still… Read More

Bloomberg – The Psychology of Rate Cuts Influencing CRE Investment

Bloomberg Features Marcus & Millichap CEO Hessam Nadji Economic Strength and Lower CRE Prices are Creating Opportunity Drivers of the Fed sentiment shift toward “higher for longer”. The up-side of a stronger-than-expected economy for CRE. Are recent price adjustments enough to motivate acquisitions? Why investors waiting on the Fed may miss opportunities.

ECONOMIC DRIVERS AND CRE

The Fed and interest rates are important, but have investors missed the big picture? Economic momentum remains sound – what this means for CRE demand drivers How should investors position for the next wave of opportunity?

Research Brief: Inflation – April 2024

Energy cost spike bumps up inflation. Mounting costs for gasoline and electricity kept overall inflation elevated over the 12-month period ending in March. The headline CPI measure grew by 3.5 percent during the span, ticking up as the energy index moved into positive territory for the first time since February 2023. Geopolitical conflict, spring-season travel, and energy providers shifting operations amid warmer weather contributed to these higher costs. Fortunately, the seasonality of rising energy prices suggests… Read More

Special Report: Office Indicators – April 2024

Early Signs Point to Improving Office Sector; Investment Trends Begin to Reflect Changes During the fourth quarter of last year, office net absorption exited the red for the first time in 15 months, pulling nationwide vacancy down 10 basis points. Over 21 million square feet on net was newly occupied between October and December, comparable to an average quarter in 2019. Nearly three-fourths of all major U.S. markets recorded positive net absorption. Key Features Include:… Read More

Research Brief: Employment – April 2024

March logs the 39th straight month of job gains. Employment growth reached a 10-month high in March as 303,000 positions were added, while the unemployment rate adjusted down to 3.8 percent. Hiring was most prominent in health care, government, construction, and leisure and hospitality. Additions in health care and leisure and hospitality, in particular, should help ease staffing shortages in…