Spending still up across most categories. After recent revisions, core retail sales rose 0.4 percent in real terms during both July and August, highlighting U.S. consumers’ resilience amid the weakening labor market and tariff-related price pressures. Spending last month was also encouraging on an annual basis, as core retail sales were up 5.4 percent. That said, the full effect of tariffs likely have yet to fully materialize…

CPI edges higher, Fed poised to ease. Inflation picked up in August, led by higher food and energy costs, while tariffs continued to gradually raise prices across other categories. Headline CPI advanced 0.4 percent month over month — the sharpest rise since January — lifting the annual rate to 2.9 percent. Core CPI increased 0.3 percent on the month and 3.1 percent year over year, underscoring the persistence of underlying cost pressures…

Much anticipated rate cut comes to pass. At its September meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee reduced the lower bound of the overnight lending rate from 4.25 percent to 4.00 percent. While this was the first rate cut since December 2024, the decision was widely expected by Wall Street. Chairman Powell characterized the change as a “risk management cut” in response to the weakening labor market, shifting the rate closer to…

The forces that could push the 10-year Treasury higher Would a recession restrain CRE performance? The key drivers supporting retail and industrial space demand                      

Weak job growth increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates Falling debt costs could support increased transaction activity Long-term CRE fundamentals supported by shrinking development pipelines                    

Labor market weakens. Sluggish on boarding persisted in August, with nonfarm payrolls rising by only 22,000 positions as the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3 percent. The softening employment market has reinforced expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting and put downward pressure on the 10-year Treasury. More accommodative monetary policy may provide modest relief for…

The key forces driving commercial real estate cap rates Why transaction velocity could accelerate in the coming months How investors can position themselves to catch the next CRE cycle                    

Delinquency is rising, but distress sales are uncommon. While the number of trades of financially or operationally challenged commercial properties has increased since the pandemic, these distressed transactions have not become as prevalent as after the Global Financial Crisis. A considerable slowdown in hiring during late spring and early summer, however, has brought up renewed concerns about distress. One potential indicator is the level of delinquency among CMBS loans…

Encouraging and discouraging trends at play in housing. Existing home sales increased 1.1 percent year over year in July 2025 to a six-month high, aided by a steadily climbing number of listings. The supply of homes at the current sales pace has eased back from the May high of 4.2 months, but the liquidity measure is still at one of its highest levels in more than five years. The added options for prospective buyers has… Read More

Current CRE delinquency trends and prospects of a wave of distress Property types facing the most distress and what’s different this time CRE investment strategies for the current market outlook