Recent spending may provide a window into months ahead. Core retail sales rose 4.4 percent on a year-over-year basis in July; however, consumers are beginning to pullback. When accounting for core CPI inflation, which rose 0.3 percent last month, core retail spending dipped 0.1 percent in July. Larger declines were registered across discretionary categories — electronics, building and gardening materials, and restaurants and bars — while necessity-based retailers — grocery and health and personal care… Read More

Topline growth in GDP resumed. Real gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter, following a 0.5 percent drop in the prior period. Yet the change in GDP was influenced in both quarters by the front-loading of imports ahead of new tariffs. Setting that distortion aside and focusing on consumer spending, final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 1.2 percent — the lowest annual rate since late 2022…

Inflation up nominally, with minimal tariff impact thus far Why Wall Street now expects multiple Fed rate cuts How the evolving interest rate outlook is reshaping investor strategies                    

Why Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates U.S. job creation stumbles – implications for CRE investors Why the 10-Year Treasury could climb in the coming months                    

Job growth picture re-framed in July. Employers added a net total of 73,000 positions last month, led by the health care and social assistance sectors with the creation of 55,400 and 17,900 roles, respectively. July’s hiring was overshadowed, however, by large downward revisions to figures from May and June. Combined, 258,000 fewer jobs were added than previously thought, with headcounts failing to rise by more than 19,000 in either month. Historically, employment estimates are revised…

Spending up but for select categories. While a broad-based pullback in consumer spending appeared to be materializing in April and May, the trajectory of core retail sales shifted course in June, rising 0.6 percent monthly and 4.1 percent year over year. This expectations-exceeding performance suggests that despite concerns surrounding tariffs, overall consumer health remains steadfast…

Trade policy and weakening economic vitality weigh on retail and industrial space demand Has office space demand turned the corner? What 5 consecutive quarters of growing demand suggests Multifamily demand remains robust – why the outlook only gets better                    

The forces slowing CRE construction and why they will be persistent The opportunities that limited new supply creates for CRE investors How investors can capitalize on the long-term CRE performance outlook                    

Rising CPI reinforces Fed caution. Inflation showed early signs of tariff-related pressure in June, with headline CPI rising to 2.7 percent year over year and core CPI reaching 2.9 percent. The pickup in core goods prices suggests that cost pass-through is beginning to take hold in categories directly exposed to trade measures, such as appliances, consumer electronics, sporting goods and toys…

Return to Office steadily gaining momentum Has office space demand reached a tipping point? How office use trends impact other types of CRE