Consumer spending dips after January surge. Following the delivery of stimulus checks at the beginning of this year, retail sales jumped across all categories. The surplus spending resulted in a month-over-month decline in February. Core retail sales dipped 3.3 percent last month, though the level is up 6 percent from the same period in 2020. Additional stimulus is currently arriving in most residents’ accounts and should reverse the trajectory of consumer spending, particularly due to… Read More

Easing restrictions aid employment at bars and restaurants.Employers added 379,000 workers to payrolls in February, the largest monthly gain since November. Hiring was most prolific in the leisure and hospitality sector with 355,000 new jobs. About 80 percent of those positions were at bars and restaurants, reflecting the benefit of relaxed restrictions on dining, particularly in Cali-fornia and New York, as well as ongoing stimulus measures. Other sectors of the economy that grew staff counts… Read More

Consumers return with new government cash. Spending in every major sector improved in January, lifting core retail sales 6.1 percent from December and 7.6 percent from one year ago. The arrival of $600 stimulus checks to millions of Americans early last month was the primary catalyst for the jump. Shoppers reversed three consecutive months of declines as most of the CARES Act stimulus had faded from the economy. The $300 increase in unemployment benefits that… Read More

Beleaguered by infections, hiring gets off to slow start in 2021. Employers expanded payrolls by a modest 49,000 jobs last month following a loss of 227,000 positions in December. January’s mild employment gain underscores the ongoing weight of the health crisis on economic growth, with some sectors recovering and others struggling. Continuing vaccinations and fewer infections in early February, however, may point to improved hiring in the weeks ahead.

Renewed shutdowns end hiring streak. After seven consecutive months of employment growth and the creation of over 12.4 mil-lion jobs, employers shed 140,000 positions in December. A rise in COVID-19 infections and the resulting lockdown precautions added new burdens on businesses already challenged by the delayed stimulus, leading to staff cuts in critically impacted sectors. While over 6 million vaccine doses have been administered in the U.S. so far, last month’s hiring regression underlines the persistent… Read More

Dwindling income and renewed closures push retail sales lower. The last of the supports from the CARES Act are winding down, including an extension of state-level unemployment benefits that will expire at the end of this year. Furthermore, several major cities have ordered businesses to temporarily shutter or reduce capacity. As a result, core retail sales declined 0.8 percent in November, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. Year over year, core retail sales have climbed 5.9… Read More

Heightened health risks temper job growth. Employers added 245,000 personnel to payrolls in November, bringing the total number of jobs created since April to 12.3 million. Last month’s gain, while above the historical average, was nevertheless the smallest of the pandemic period. This moderation in hiring is tied largely to the cessation of fiscal stimulus as well as a major resurgence in coronavirus infections. The return of stricter lockdown requirements will weigh on overall employment growth… Read More

Retail sales gains slow. Buoyed by Amazon Prime Day sales, retail sales inched up 0.3 percent in October. Core retail sales ticked up 0.2 percent last month as the pace of consumer spending gains returned to normal levels. Future gains in several sectors remain in doubt due to a flurry of new restrictions across the country as coronavirus case counts rise. New York, New Jersey and New Mexico have already announced tighter limitations due to… Read More

October job additions consistent month over month. Employers hired 638,000 personnel last month, modestly below the 672,000 positions created in September. This more consistent level of job creation reflects the benefits of continued economic reopenings, although the recent rise in the number of coronavirus cases presents fresh concerns. The rate of infection has roughly doubled since the October employment data was collected and the possibility of new lockdowns or warinesses to gather in person may… Read More

U.S. records strongest quarterly gain on record. Reopening local economies pushed GDP growth to 33.1 percent in the summer quarter. Although the gain was on the high end of expectations, the overall economy remains 3.5 percent below the level at the end of last year. Following strict shutdowns in April and May, most states began to relax restrictions on nonessential businesses to some degree. At the same time, CARES Act stimulus started reaching households as… Read More