Consumer spending sturdy last month. Unfazed by the end of federal unemployment benefits and other dissipating stimulus, core retail sales increased 0.7 percent in September and 13.5 percent from the same period last year. Although inflation, which climbed 0.4 percent last month, was a contributing factor to the rise, the overall spending picture remained brighter than anticipated. Lingering back-to-school shopping and wider office openings contributed to the gains as apparel and gas station spending advanced… Read More

Hiring slows again in September. The complete expiration of federal unemployment insurance did not translate into accelerated job growth last month as the health crisis continued to present challenges. Employers added 194,000 personnel to payrolls in September, barely above the monthly average from more typical years such as 2018. Logistical logjams, infection worries and vaccine mandates contributed to last month’s slowdown; however, the greatest weight came from the public sector. Government payrolls fell by 123,000… Read More

Core retail sales reverse course in August. Shoppers remained active at the end of the summer, driven by online spending and back-to-school sales. Overall, core retail sales increased by 2.0 percent between July and August, largely due to an increase in nonstore spending of 5.3 percent. More people stayed home in some areas of the country to avoid the challenges associated with the much more contagious delta strain of COVID-19. Others kept away from restaurants,… Read More

Tight multifamily vacancy supports permit surge. Across the residential sector, permit activity climbed in August. The rise was mostly attributed to multifamily, as filings for single-family houses remained relatively in line with preceding months. Meanwhile, apartment permits soared 15 percent month over month, reaching the highest level since June 2015. Greater construction is warranted by extremely tight vacancy, as apartment availability in June fell below 4 percent for just the second time in the past… Read More

Health concerns slowed hiring last month. Job creation declined substantially in August as 235,000 positions were added, down from the 1.05 million personnel brought on in July. Job losses in many high-contact service roles contributed to the decrease, reflecting the negative impact of rising COVID-19 infections. Facing greater health risks, some individuals opted not to apply for such roles. Many employers have also imposed vaccine mandates, adding new steps to the hiring process. Growth is… Read More

Consumers tapped brakes on spending last month. Core retail sales dipped 0.7 percent on a monthly basis in July. Flattening consumer confidence likely indicates that the increase in coronavirus cases due to the delta variant is impacting shopping behavior. Clothing store sales, for instance, declined 2.6 percent last month, while department stores reported a 0.3 percent decline. The termination of federal unemployment benefits in roughly half of U.S. states may have also impacted retail sales… Read More

Completions climb to a three-month high. Builders finalized more single-family and multifamily housing units combined in July than in either of the previous two months. Deliveries will likely trend higher in the coming quarters as well. The moderation in the cost of a few key materials, most notably lumber, has boosted permit activity and is helping the pipeline of stalled residential developments move toward the finish line. In July, apartment permit filings lifted by 10… Read More

Rising infections prompt moratorium extension. On Aug. 3 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention enacted a new order halting residential evictions in counties with substantial or high levels of COVID-19 community transmission. As of Aug. 17, most counties in the U.S. met that criteria, effectively extending a ban on residential evictions that has been in place in one form or another since April 2020. Once the order expires, currently slated for Oct. 3, pending… Read More

Restrained stock and rising costs pose challenges for developers. Over the past year, a lack of available building materials and skilled labor contributed to sizable surge in prices and delayed or canceled the completion of some residential and commercial real estate projects. Year over year, the cost of lumber has jumped 90 percent and steel pric-es rose 67 percent, while gypsum used to make drywall is up 12 percent and concrete rose 3 percent. Labor… Read More

Growth remains steady. In the second quarter, the economy ex-panded 6.5 percent on an annualized basis. Gains would have been larger but supply-chain challenges and a labor shortage hamstrung improvement. Those issues should be transitory, however, as amplified federal unemployment benefits sunset in September. In May, 9.2 million jobs were available nationwide, the highest level on record. Additionally, the national eviction moratorium may expire soon, which could encourage more workers to reenter the workforce. Supply-chain… Read More