Research Brief: Employment – June 2016
Declining unemployment claims and job openings near an all-time high point to an expanding labor market, not one that is losing momentum as suggested by weaker-than-anticipated job creation in May.
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Our research methodology integrates historical and current economic, demographic and real estate factors which enables our Research Services department to develop comprehensive market forecast scenarios.
Declining unemployment claims and job openings near an all-time high point to an expanding labor market, not one that is losing momentum as suggested by weaker-than-anticipated job creation in May.
The increase in sales of previously owned homes and new single-family residences in April illustrates growing demand for owner-occupied housing and the improving ability of prospective homebuyers to save for down payments and handle monthly mortgage obligations. Interest rates on residential mortgages remain near historic lows, maintaining housing affordability and stimulating a higher volume of single-family home purchases even as prices continue to rise and for-sale inventory remains limited.
Solid hiring across multiple employment sectors in April did not produce a large gain in U.S. payrolls, but the increase nonetheless reaffirms that the labor market remains in sound condition.
Housing demand remains elevated as low mortgage rates have helped keep the cost of ownership in check despite steady appreciation. The solid pace of hiring over the last six years and modest but consistent wage growth have helped prospective homeowners repair their balance sheets and re-engage the housing market.
A solid burst of hiring last month culminated a strong first quarter for the U.S. labor market.
Single-family home sales were curbed by a February chill, limited inventory, and a boost in the apartment sector.
Employers demonstrated the strength of the U.S. labor market in February as it continued to shrug off lingering global economic uncertainty and softness in oil and gas industries. Jobs were created in multiple service sectors of the economy and at government agencies during the month, helping to maintain gauges of labor market capacity at tight levels. While wage growth continues to search for a stimulus that will impart greater traction, the U.S. labor market nonetheless… Read More
A substantial increase in supply ignited a steep decline in the price of crude oil over the past year. U.S. crude inventory has increased more than 20 percent since year-end 2014 and OPEC members continue to pump at elevated levels in an attempt to weaken U.S. producers. The supply glut and downward price pressure could potentially worsen as Iran ramps up production as sanctions are lifted and the U.S. exhausts storage capacity. These trends have… Read More
January hiring fell short of expectations but gains aligned to support commercial real estate.
U.S. employers pushed ahead with hiring plans in December to top off a strong year of job creation. The vigor of the U.S. labor market evident throughout 2015 will enable the Federal Reserve to place greater weight on inflation trends in guiding its monetary policy decisions this year.