Markets predict Fed cut in March, even with bump in CPI. Headline inflation ticked up to 3.4 percent over the year ended December 2023, as both energy and shelter costs accelerated during the month. While this higher reading appears to complicate the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy in 2024, market probabilities for a rate cut in March actually grew over 500 basis points, to about 70 percent shortly after the CPI data release. The… Read More

December job additions fall short of the monthly average. Employers closed out the year by adding 216,000 positions in the final month, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent. Although this was up from the prior two months, it sustains the trend of slowing addition, with December falling below the 2023 monthly average. This presents a sign that while hiring is still strong despite the pressure of high interest rates on company finances,… Read More

Non-cyclical and strike-impacted sectors log modest job creation. Last month welcomed 199,000 new positions as the labor market continued to exhibit resilience. Still, November’s headline number fell a fair bit below the trailing 12-month average of 240,000 roles as hiring velocity slows. While the overall growth eased back, hiring was still aggressive in non-cyclical sectors like health care and government, as well as in industries affected by…

Unemployment inches up in October amid modest job creation. The tight labor market loosened slightly in October as 150,000 positions were created, the second-slowest month for hiring since the end of 2020. Additions were greatest in the health care and public sectors, with the onboarding of 58,000 and 51,000 personnel on net, respectively. Government job creation was largely in…

Rising shelter prices keep core inflation high. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed above 7.5 percent in October, marking a 23-year peak. Previous Federal Reserve actions have increased interest rates, which — in conjunction with higher home prices — have resulted in more expensive housing costs. The shelter index lifted 7.2 percent year-over-year in September, driven by…

Staffing additions hit eight-month high, holding unemployment flat. Employers across the country created 336,000 new jobs in September, above the year-to-date monthly average of 260,000, and the strongest month for hiring since January. Employment growth occurred across a broad range of industries, led by the onboarding of 96,000…

Fed opts for a rate hike hiatus. On September 20, the Federal Open Market Committee announced there would be no change in the federal funds rate, while the institution would continue to reduce securities holdings. This will maintain the current lower bound of 5.25 percent first set in July, and mark the second meeting in 2023 during which the Fed chose to forgo a rate increase. Labor market dynamics played a major role in the… Read More

Core pricing pressures subside further. The headline consumer price index rose 3.7 percent year-over-year in August, the second month in a row that the metric ticked up. While this could suggest a re-acceleration of price hikes, the cyclical nature of the increase suggests that inflation is still broadly slowing. Over one-half of the rise was due to a…

Consumers prioritize necessities as debt builds. Overall U.S. retail sales rose 2.5 percent year-over-year in August; however, core spending — which excludes gasoline and auto purchases — ascended 3.6 percent during the same interval. Momentum over the past year led to a core sales record in August of nearly $509 billion. The restaurant and bar, as well as the health and personal care, segments were largely responsible for the pronounced annual gain in core sales, with… Read More

Steady return of urban activity keeps conditions tight. Vacancy held unchanged at 1.8 percent across the city during the second quarter of 2023, marking a 21-month span during which the rate has remained at this two-decade low. Conditions are still tightening in Midtown and Midtown South, as increasing office usage has brought some professionals back to central Manhattan neighborhoods. Placer.ai data indicates that midweek visits to offices in the borough reached 68 percent of the…