Reports

Research Brief: Inflation – June 2023

Inflation slows to 27-month low. The headline consumer price index rose by 4.0 percent year-over-year in May, less than half the 9.1 percent pace recorded last June. While consumer prices are still rising more rapidly than the Federal Reserve prefers, the cool down from peak levels encouraged officials to hold the federal funds rate flat in June. The hiatus allows more…

Research Brief: Financial Markets – June 2023

Federal Reserve pauses in June to assess data. The Federal Open Market Committee held their policy rate flat at a lower bound of 5 percent at the June meeting. This is the first time the FOMC has not raised the federal funds rate at a meeting since before March 2022. The pause does not, however, imply an end to the current tightening cycle. The Federal Reserve is continuing to reduce its…

Research Brief: Debt Ceiling Agreement – June 2023

Bipartisan agreement avoids potential catastrophe. President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy reached a tentative agreement on May 27 to suspend the debt limit until January 2025. This bill, known as the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, was approved by the House of Representatives on May 31, and the Senate on June 1, before going to the president for his signature. Treasury Secretary Yellen provided an estimated date of June 5, at which point reserve funds would… Read More

Research Brief: Employment – June 2023

Hiring reaches four-month high. Employers across the country created 339,000 new jobs last month, the most since January. Hiring occurred across industries, as only the manufacturing and information sectors reported net staff contractions. The number of self-employed individuals also declined notably in May, contributing to a…

Special Report: Debt Ceiling – May 2023

Lessons Learned from Previous Near-Default Debt Ceiling Negotiations Indicate Potential Ramifications of the Holdup Congress and the president have been slow to reach an agreed resolution to the debt ceiling, which was hit earlier this year. The Treasury has been relying on reserve funds to meet expenses, but estimates expect those measures could be exhausted as soon as early June, forcing cost-cutting elsewhere to avoid a default. Even a last-minute agreement can have implications for… Read More

Research Brief: Inflation – May 2023

Inflation descending at a more subdued pace. Annual growth in the headline consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 4.9 percent in April, marking the 10th month in a row that this metric has decelerated since the Federal Reserve began tightening policy in the current cycle. Increases in the cost of borrowing have chipped away at household demand for major purchases, including for homes and new vehicles, which are often financed. The price index for shelter increased… Read More

Research Brief: Retail Sales – May 2023

Consumption tailwinds back demand for available space. Labor market resiliency, wage growth and easing inflationary pressures aided consumers’ spending power in April, supporting a 0.6 percent increase in core retail sales. Households concentrated their spending on essential goods and seasonal items during the month, generating sales growth across the…

Research Brief: Employment – May 2023

Labor market continued to grow in April. Employers created 253,000 positions in April, up from the 165,000 jobs added in March but below the year-to-date monthly average of 285,000. Hiring last month spanned most sectors, ranging from technical health care and professional services roles to hourly restaurant positions. April’s employment growth, paired with a reduction in the labor force, was enough to dip the unemployment rate back down to a historical low of 3.4 percent. Unemployment… Read More

Research Brief: Financial Markets – May 2023

Federal funds rate pushed to 16-year high. On May 3, the Federal Open Market Committee lifted the overnight lending rate to a lower bound of 5.0 percent, a 25-basis-point shift. The FOMC has raised the federal funds rate a combined 75 basis points so far in 2023, just one-sixth of last year’s total shift. Going forward, the path is more open. Chairman Powell stated that the FOMC will take a meeting-by-meeting approach to any further monetary… Read More

Market Research Report: Multifamily – NYC Metro – Q2 2023

Local apartment demand resisting broader headwinds. The New York City multifamily sector entered 2023 on strong footing. Nearly as many apartments were absorbed on a net basis last year as were constructed, which stands in sharp contrast to the national trend of increasing vacancy. Overall, roughly 70,000 more apartments are occupied today in the metro than before the pandemic began, as pent-up demand to form households offset an overall retreat in the local population. Moving… Read More