Market Research Report: New York City – Q3 2018

Low unemployment and consistent job growth are boosting apartment demand. A broad base of high-wage industries and more than 8.5 million residents are driving significant net absorption of apartments, particularly as single-family homes remain out of reach for many would-be buyers. As the pace of construction soared, net absorption outpaced new supply every year since 2012, fostering a metrowide vacancy rate that reached 2 percent by the end of 2017. This year, development with contract… Read More

Apartment Outlook – Midyear 2018

Economy gets a boost from tax reform. Economic growth surpassed 4 percent in the second quarter, lifted by strengthened consumption and business investment. The new tax law has stimulated the economy by increasing after-tax earnings and pushing consumer and business confidence to near-record levels. This combination has sparked elevated spending and accelerated job creation. Through the first half of 2018, the economy added over 1.3 million jobs, driving unemployment below 4 percent and boosting wage… Read More

Research Brief: Employment – June 2018

Labor market enters a new paradigm.  For the first time on record, the number of job openings exceeds the number of people out of work and seeking employment.  At the end of April, job openings stood at 6.7 million while the number of unemployment sat at 6.3 million.  But despite this abnormal condition, employers and the economy have found ways to keep employment expanding at a quickened stride.

Research Brief: Federal Reserve – June 2018

The Federal Reserve increased the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, lifting the overnight lending rate to a range of 1.75 percent to 2 percent.  Citing stronger consumer spending, and a highly optimistic business community, the Fed laid out the potential for two additional rate hikes in 2018.  The Fed noted strong job growth, accommodative fiscal policy and above-target inflation as reasons for continuing to normalize monetary policy over the coming months.

Research Brief: Federal Reserve – March 2018

Fed raises benchmark interest rate, plots path for additional increases.  The Federal Reserve increased the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, lifting the overnight lending rate to 1.5 percent.  While the Fed noted that the inflation outlook had moderated in recent months, an upgraded economic forecast factoring in recent tax cuts and a rollback in regulation strengthened growth projections for the next two years.  As a result, the Fed has guided toward two additional… Read More

Research Brief: Housing – June 2018

For a fifth consecutive year, millennials led home purchase activity, comprising 36 percent of the buyers in 2017.  The oldest millennials are now 37, and as this generation ages and starts families, a wave of potential new buyers are moving into the market.  Approximately two-thirds of first-time buyers in 2017 were millennials, but housing affordability remains a concern in 2018 as home listings under $200,000 continue to shrink.  Homes in this price tranche have fallen… Read More

Research Brief: Housing – March 2018

Robust housing demand spurred by steady employment gains and wage growth ticked up the homeownership rate by 60 basis points to 64.2 percent at the end of 2017.  The increase was driven by a 220-basis-point advance in the homeownership rate for those under age 35 to 36.4 percent.  Though it is encouraging that this age group is actively purchasing homes, this segment remains below its pre-recession rate of 40 percent, indicating there is still room… Read More

Research Brief: Retail – June 2018

Retail sales accelerate as unemployment rate tumbles.  Retail spending posted another strong month with help from an incredibly tight labor market.  The 3.8 percent unemployment rate has placed upward pressure on wages as many companies compete for quality employees.  This trend has supposed modest but steady wage growth, driving the annual pace of the wage gains to 2.7 percent in May this year, in turn supporting a 5.1 percent increase in core retail sales.  With… Read More

Special Report: 10-Year Treasury Rate

Rising interest rates spark fear from investors but reflect persistently strong economic growth that underpins commercial real estate performance.  The 10-year Treasury rate inched past 3 percent for the first time since late 2013 following the “taper tantrum.”  Though many investors fear the rising rates will erode their investment yields, they must consider the strength and durability of the current economic cycle and how it will continue to support commercial real estate performance.

Special Report: Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve raised overnight interest rate, signals another hike in December. Following the conclusion of its September meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 28 basis points to 2 percent. Citing persistent levels of inflation, burgeoning acceleration in wages and exceptionally low unemployment, the Fed also outlined plans for an additional rate increase in December.