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Reports

Research Brief: Financial Markets – September 2024

Decision kicks off greater reduction cycle. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) slashed the the federal funds rate by 50 basis points during its September meeting, setting the lower bound at 4.75 percent. The first cut since March 2020, this decision reflects the Fed’s confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent and its intent to prevent further labor market softness. In August, headline CPI was up 2.5 percent annually, with unemployment sitting at 4.2… Read More

Research Brief: Employment – September 2024

Joblessness pulled back for the first time since March. National unemployment fell by 10 basis points month-over-month to 4.2 percent in August, alleviating some recession concerns following a notable jump in July. Driving the August decline was a moderation in the number of people on temporary layoff. The 190,000-person decline reversed an uptick from the prior month and implies more people in this situation were able to find alternative positions. Still, unemployment remained 40 basis points… Read More

Research Brief: Housing – August 2024

Modest borrowing cost relief inches up home sales. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased from a 2024 peak of 7.1 percent in May to the mid-6 percent range by late August. That downshift brought some buyers off the sidelines in July, with existing home sales rising by 1.4 percent month-over-month. Still, the uptick in purchases was mild as sales velocity remained…

Research Brief: Retail Sales – August 2024

Sector registers rare achievement. For the third consecutive month, consumers set a record for core retail sales, exceeding pundits’ expectations. Consumer resiliency translated to a 3.4 percent year-over-year rise in spending during July, with sales up in real terms even after factoring in core CPI inflation. Gains were widespread across retail segments, with nine of 10 core categories notching annual spending increases, ranging from…

Research Brief: Capital Markets – August 2024

Treasuries decrease amid softening market conditions. In the 90 days ended Aug. 9, the 10-year Treasury fell 50 basis points to the 3.9 percent range, its lowest level since a brief point in February of this year. This decline manifested as the prospects for upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve gained momentum amid lower inflation readings and loosening…

Research Brief: Employment – August 2024

Unemployment rate hits a near three-year high. Total employment increased by 114,000 jobs in July, the second-lowest monthly gain in 2024 and falling well under the trailing-year average of 215,000 roles added. That hiring slowdown contributed to unemployment rising by 20 basis points month-over-month to 4.3 percent, the highest measure since October 2021. Health care accounted for about half…

Research Brief: Retail Sales – July 2024

Households’ priorities reflected in recent gains. For a second straight month, consumers set a new high for core retail sales, with spending up 3.8 percent year over year in June. This improvement closed out a first half that saw core spending rise 3.2 percent when compared to the same period of 2023. During this span, consumers prioritized experiences, discounts and essential items, as reflected in gains recorded across the online, restaurant, grocery, health and personal… Read More

Research Brief: Inflation – July 2024

Falling commodity prices reflect cooling economy. While pricing pressures remain above target 27 months into the Federal Reserve’s current monetary tightening cycle, meaningful relief is beginning to show. Annual growth in the commodities less food and energy index — which captures pricing changes for non-necessity items such as recreation, vehicles and apparel — has been in negative territory for six consecutive months and reached a near 20-year-low at -1.8 percent in June. Elevated costs for essentials… Read More

Research Brief: Employment – July 2024

Job creation supported by business-cycle-agnostic sectors. The creation of 206,000 jobs in June brings total net hiring for the second quarter to 532,000, the lowest three-month total for employment growth since January of 2021. Much of the recent hiring slowdown has come from industries tied to the business cycle, including net job losses recorded during June in both the professional and business services sector as well as retail trade. Year-to-date job creation has been stronger… Read More

Research Brief: Employment – June 2024

Labor market moving closer to equilibrium even amid strong hiring. Total employment increased by 272,000 in May, coming in above the average monthly gain year-to-date. Despite this uptick in job creation, there are several signs that overall labor demand is cooling and moving closer in line with labor supply. Nearly half of last month’s hiring was concentrated in just two main employment sectors, which includes roles in government. It is likely that public sector staffing needs… Read More