Fed takes second step on gradual rate-lowering path. After reducing the overnight lending rate by 50 basis points in September, the Federal Open Market committee opted to cut again by half that margin at the November meeting. This returns the target lower bound to 4.5 percent — a level not seen since March 2023 — reflecting progress on both sides of the…

Discrepancies cloud employment data. October’s atypically low job creation total of 12,000 is largely the result of sector hiring offsets and disruptions from recent events. Education, health services and public service organizations added a combined 97,000 personnel last month, consistent with trends seen thus far this year. Over 60 percent of the positions added in this span were from one of these less cyclical industries. Countering these gains were the loss of 47,000 professional and business… Read More

New York multifamily market solidly back on track. This past July marked the three-year anniversary of New York City’s post-COVID-19 reopening and found multifamily vacancy at a historically low 1.8 percent. The lack of availability has facilitated consistent, if modest, rent growth, with the metro’s average effective rate up 8 percent in that same three-year span. The return of many quality of life factors to the city, as well as a broad labor market recovery,… Read More

Labor market flexes renewed strength. Following three straight monthly gains below 160,000 new jobs, national employment rose by 254,000 positions in September 2024 — the largest hike since March. That addition lowered unemployment to 4.1 percent, which is up 30 basis points from the same point in 2023 but down from the 4.3 percent peak in July, easing recession concerns. Employment gains spanned a wide range of sectors in September. Driven by accommodations and food services… Read More

More apartments were absorbed during the opening six months of 2024 than during the entirety of last year, keeping national vacancy unchanged over the first half. Rent growth remains below historic norms as the wave of new supply is elevating concession use in development-heavy markets. Nevertheless, barriers to becoming a first-time homeowner along with a cooling labor market are motivating tenants to renew leases, supporting rent growth in that category. Key Features Include: Insights into… Read More

Mortgage rate plunge fails to stoke buyer demand. Existing home sales decreased by 3.3 percent year over year in August 2024 to an eight-month low. That pullback transpired in the midst of substantial downward movement in the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. The gauge plummeted by 60 basis points year over year to 6.5 percent in August and slackened by an additional 40 basis points through mid-September. Even so, record-high home prices are maintaining historic homebuying barriers.… Read More

Decision kicks off greater reduction cycle. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) slashed the the federal funds rate by 50 basis points during its September meeting, setting the lower bound at 4.75 percent. The first cut since March 2020, this decision reflects the Fed’s confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent and its intent to prevent further labor market softness. In August, headline CPI was up 2.5 percent annually, with unemployment sitting at 4.2… Read More

Joblessness pulled back for the first time since March. National unemployment fell by 10 basis points month-over-month to 4.2 percent in August, alleviating some recession concerns following a notable jump in July. Driving the August decline was a moderation in the number of people on temporary layoff. The 190,000-person decline reversed an uptick from the prior month and implies more people in this situation were able to find alternative positions. Still, unemployment remained 40 basis points… Read More

Modest borrowing cost relief inches up home sales. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased from a 2024 peak of 7.1 percent in May to the mid-6 percent range by late August. That downshift brought some buyers off the sidelines in July, with existing home sales rising by 1.4 percent month-over-month. Still, the uptick in purchases was mild as sales velocity remained…

Sector registers rare achievement. For the third consecutive month, consumers set a record for core retail sales, exceeding pundits’ expectations. Consumer resiliency translated to a 3.4 percent year-over-year rise in spending during July, with sales up in real terms even after factoring in core CPI inflation. Gains were widespread across retail segments, with nine of 10 core categories notching annual spending increases, ranging from…