Dual retail categories buck the larger trend. In January, for the first time since March of last year, core retail sales fell on a monthly basis, a reflection of more consumers avoiding big-ticket, discretionary purchases. The 0.5 percent decline in core spending, however, overshadowed sales at restaurants and bars, as well as grocery stores, which each rose in both real and nominal terms last month to record levels. Collectively, the two categories accounted for…

Inflation metrics present mixed bag. The headline Consumer Price Index rose 3.1 percent over the year ended January, down 30 basis points from the December reading. Falling energy prices and flattening costs for food helped slow inflation, as supply chains remained fluid despite ongoing global conflict. However, when stripping these indices out, the core CPI measure held at 3.9 percent over the year ended January, the same annual rate as last month. While sustained core pricing… Read More

The year kicks off with strong job growth. Total employment rose by 353,000 in January, the largest increase since the same month in 2023, and similar to the 333,000 roles added in December. Unemployment held steady at 3.7 percent for the third month in a row despite this increase. Job gains predominantly occurred in…

Demand for Multifamily Housing Improving Amid Durable Economy, But Benefits Disguised by Ample New Supply Following a year of above-expectation economic growth, momentum appears to support sturdy, albeit modest, gains in 2024. Against this generally positive backdrop, the multifamily sector is contending with its own dynamics, chief among them being the challenge of record new supply. How each market responds to this and other issues will be unique. The 2024 National Multifamily Investment Forecast offers… Read More

Markets predict Fed cut in March, even with bump in CPI. Headline inflation ticked up to 3.4 percent over the year ended December 2023, as both energy and shelter costs accelerated during the month. While this higher reading appears to complicate the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy in 2024, market probabilities for a rate cut in March actually grew over 500 basis points, to about 70 percent shortly after the CPI data release. The… Read More

December job additions fall short of the monthly average. Employers closed out the year by adding 216,000 positions in the final month, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent. Although this was up from the prior two months, it sustains the trend of slowing addition, with December falling below the 2023 monthly average. This presents a sign that while hiring is still strong despite the pressure of high interest rates on company finances,… Read More

Non-cyclical and strike-impacted sectors log modest job creation. Last month welcomed 199,000 new positions as the labor market continued to exhibit resilience. Still, November’s headline number fell a fair bit below the trailing 12-month average of 240,000 roles as hiring velocity slows. While the overall growth eased back, hiring was still aggressive in non-cyclical sectors like health care and government, as well as in industries affected by…

Unemployment inches up in October amid modest job creation. The tight labor market loosened slightly in October as 150,000 positions were created, the second-slowest month for hiring since the end of 2020. Additions were greatest in the health care and public sectors, with the onboarding of 58,000 and 51,000 personnel on net, respectively. Government job creation was largely in…

Rising shelter prices keep core inflation high. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed above 7.5 percent in October, marking a 23-year peak. Previous Federal Reserve actions have increased interest rates, which — in conjunction with higher home prices — have resulted in more expensive housing costs. The shelter index lifted 7.2 percent year-over-year in September, driven by…

Staffing additions hit eight-month high, holding unemployment flat. Employers across the country created 336,000 new jobs in September, above the year-to-date monthly average of 260,000, and the strongest month for hiring since January. Employment growth occurred across a broad range of industries, led by the onboarding of 96,000…