Joblessness pulled back for the first time since March. National unemployment fell by 10 basis points month-over-month to 4.2 percent in August, alleviating some recession concerns following a notable jump in July. Driving the August decline was a moderation in the number of people on temporary layoff. The 190,000-person decline reversed an uptick from the prior month and implies more people in this situation were able to find alternative positions. Still, unemployment remained 40 basis points… Read More

Federal Reserve increasingly focused to slowing employment market Rising unemployment aligns with Fed plan to reduce overheated wages Why CRE space demand should remain sturdy despite slowing growth outlook  

Modest borrowing cost relief inches up home sales. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased from a 2024 peak of 7.1 percent in May to the mid-6 percent range by late August. That downshift brought some buyers off the sidelines in July, with existing home sales rising by 1.4 percent month-over-month. Still, the uptick in purchases was mild as sales velocity remained…

Sector registers rare achievement. For the third consecutive month, consumers set a record for core retail sales, exceeding pundits’ expectations. Consumer resiliency translated to a 3.4 percent year-over-year rise in spending during July, with sales up in real terms even after factoring in core CPI inflation. Gains were widespread across retail segments, with nine of 10 core categories notching annual spending increases, ranging from…

Key CRE Performance benchmarks of the last five years Why the CRE Outlook is increasingly positive Why the CRE investment climate will strengthen

Treasuries decrease amid softening market conditions. In the 90 days ended Aug. 9, the 10-year Treasury fell 50 basis points to the 3.9 percent range, its lowest level since a brief point in February of this year. This decline manifested as the prospects for upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve gained momentum amid lower inflation readings and loosening…

The Fed held rates flat in July… Now what? Economic momentum is slackening – Now what? What rising unemployment really means for investors

Unemployment rate hits a near three-year high. Total employment increased by 114,000 jobs in July, the second-lowest monthly gain in 2024 and falling well under the trailing-year average of 215,000 roles added. That hiring slowdown contributed to unemployment rising by 20 basis points month-over-month to 4.3 percent, the highest measure since October 2021. Health care accounted for about half…

Households’ priorities reflected in recent gains. For a second straight month, consumers set a new high for core retail sales, with spending up 3.8 percent year over year in June. This improvement closed out a first half that saw core spending rise 3.2 percent when compared to the same period of 2023. During this span, consumers prioritized experiences, discounts and essential items, as reflected in gains recorded across the online, restaurant, grocery, health and personal… Read More

Falling commodity prices reflect cooling economy. While pricing pressures remain above target 27 months into the Federal Reserve’s current monetary tightening cycle, meaningful relief is beginning to show. Annual growth in the commodities less food and energy index — which captures pricing changes for non-necessity items such as recreation, vehicles and apparel — has been in negative territory for six consecutive months and reached a near 20-year-low at -1.8 percent in June. Elevated costs for essentials… Read More